Trend in Area, Production and Yield of Coffee in India

Coffee, a predominant plantation crop is a highly traded commodity and mostly consumed as a hot beverage. India stands seventh among the world coffee producing countries. Consumption is higher in south India. India grows Arabica and Robusta coffee. Consumption of coffee in India increased at 2 percent per annum till 2020 and after that there was 5 per cent growth rate (ShrutiArun, 2020). The present study was proposed with the objective of studying the trend in area, production, yield of Arabica and Robusta coffee in India and Tamil Nadu and predicting the same. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Analysis was used to find the trend in area, production and yield of coffee. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used for forecasting the area and production of Arabica and Robusta in India till 2025. Area, production, yield of Arabica and Robusta coffee in India showed a positive trend. A negative trend was observed in productivity of Arabica coffee in India. Whereas in Tamil Nadu, area of Arabica and Robusta coffee showed positive trend, a negative trend was seen in production and productivity of Arabica and Robusta. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for Arabica and ARIMA (1, 1, 0) found to provide best fit for predicting the area and production of Robusta coffee in India.