Impact of Climate Change Assessments on Horticultural Crop Dynamics in Tamil Nadu, India

Aim: This study aims to analyze the dynamics of horticultural crop production in Tamil Nadu amidst climate change, focusing on trends, challenges, and opportunities across diverse agro-climatic zones, primarily considering variations in rainfall.

Data: The research utilizes comprehensive datasets spanning a decade (2012-13 to 2021-22) encompassing records of rainfall, horticulture cultivation area, and production. The study focuses on major horticultural crop categories, including fruits, vegetables, plantation crops, spices and condiments, medicinal and aromatic crops, and flowers.

Objective: (1) analyze compound annual growth rates of area, production, and productivity of key horticultural crops in Tamil Nadu, (2) conduct decomposition analysis over a decade for horticultural crops, and (3) assess climate change impact on agricultural production in Tamil Nadu focusing on rainfall patterns.

Methodology: The study utilizes various analytical tools, including Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis, percentage analysis, decomposition analysis, and the Cobb-Douglas production function. Secondary data from government publications, including the Season and Crop Report of Tamil Nadu and the Department of Horticultural and Plantation Crop Report of Tamil Nadu, are utilized for analysis.

Results: The analysis reveals intricate patterns influenced by climate variability, with certain zones demonstrating harmonious growth, while others contend with challenges related to cultivation and productivity. The decomposition analysis highlights the respective contributions of changes in cultivation area and crop yield to variations in production, underscoring the impact of climate change on agricultural dynamics. Additionally, the Cobb-Douglas production function analysis indicates significant effects of both rainfall and cultivation area on horticultural production, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of factors influencing production trends.